Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models

Bernhard Schauberger (), Sotirios Archontoulis, Almut Arneth, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Joshua Elliott, Christian Folberth, Nikolay Khabarov, Christoph Müller, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Erwin Schmid, Xuhui Wang, Wolfram Schlenker and Katja Frieler
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Bernhard Schauberger: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Sotirios Archontoulis: Iowa State University
Almut Arneth: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Juraj Balkovic: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program
Philippe Ciais: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL)
Delphine Deryng: University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute
Joshua Elliott: University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute
Christian Folberth: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program
Nikolay Khabarov: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program
Christoph Müller: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Thomas A. M. Pugh: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Susanne Rolinski: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Sibyll Schaphoff: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Erwin Schmid: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
Xuhui Wang: Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique
Wolfram Schlenker: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Katja Frieler: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields. Each day >30 °C diminishes maize and soybean yields by up to 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines observed in irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, are weak. This supports the hypothesis that water stress induced by high temperatures causes the decline. For wheat a negative response to high temperature is neither observed nor simulated under historical conditions, since critical temperatures are rarely exceeded during the growing season. In the future, yields are modelled to decline for all three crops at temperatures >30 °C. Elevated CO2 can only weakly reduce these yield losses, in contrast to irrigation.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13931

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