Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils

Daniel R. Schlaepfer (), John B. Bradford, William K. Lauenroth, Seth M. Munson, Britta Tietjen, Sonia A. Hall, Scott D. Wilson, Michael C. Duniway, Gensuo Jia, David A. Pyke, Ariuntsetseg Lkhagva and Khishigbayar Jamiyansharav
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Daniel R. Schlaepfer: University of Basel, Section of Conservation Biology
John B. Bradford: US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center
William K. Lauenroth: University of Wyoming
Seth M. Munson: US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center
Britta Tietjen: Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Biology, Biodiversity and Ecological Modeling
Sonia A. Hall: Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University
Scott D. Wilson: University of Regina
Michael C. Duniway: US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center
Gensuo Jia: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
David A. Pyke: US Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center
Ariuntsetseg Lkhagva: School of Arts and Sciences, National University of Mongolia
Khishigbayar Jamiyansharav: Colorado State University

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in extent and aridity in coming decades, temperature and precipitation forecasts vary by latitude and geographic region suggesting different trajectories for tropical, subtropical, and temperate drylands. Uncertainty in the future of tropical and subtropical drylands is well constrained, whereas soil moisture and ecological droughts, which drive vegetation productivity and composition, remain poorly understood in temperate drylands. Here we show that, over the twenty first century, temperate drylands may contract by a third, primarily converting to subtropical drylands, and that deep soil layers could be increasingly dry during the growing season. These changes imply major shifts in vegetation and ecosystem service delivery. Our results illustrate the importance of appropriate drought measures and, as a global study that focuses on temperate drylands, highlight a distinct fate for these highly populated areas.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14196

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