Displacement efficiency of alternative energy and trans-provincial imported electricity in China

Yuanan Hu and Hefa Cheng ()
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Yuanan Hu: MOE Laboratory of Groundwater Circulation and Evolution, School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences (Beijing)
Hefa Cheng: MOE Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract China has invested heavily on alternative energy, but the effectiveness of such energy sources at substituting the dominant coal-fired generation remains unknown. Here we analyse the displacement of fossil-fuel-generated electricity by alternative energy, primarily hydropower, and by trans-provincial imported electricity in China between 1995 and 2014 using two-way fixed-effects panel regression models. Nationwide, each unit of alternative energy displaces nearly one-quarter of a unit of fossil-fuel-generated electricity, while each unit of imported electricity (regardless of the generation source) displaces ∼0.3 unit of fossil-fuel electricity generated locally. Results from the six regional grids indicate that significant displacement of fossil-fuel-generated electricity occurs once the share of alternative energy in the electricity supply mix exceeds ∼10%, which is accompanied by 10–50% rebound in the consumption of fossil-fuel-generated electricity. These findings indicate the need for a policy that integrates carbon taxation, alternative energy and energy efficiency to facilitate China’s transition towards a low-carbon economy.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14590

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