Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks

Delphine Clara Zemp (), Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Henrique M. J. Barbosa, Marina Hirota, Vincent Montade, Gilvan Sampaio, Arie Staal, Lan Wang-Erlandsson and Anja Rammig
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Delphine Clara Zemp: Humboldt Universität zu Berlin
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Henrique M. J. Barbosa: Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo
Marina Hirota: Federal University of Santa Catarina, Campus Universitário Reitor João David Ferreira Lima
Vincent Montade: Albrecht-von-Haller-Institute for Plant Sciences, Georg-August-University
Gilvan Sampaio: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Arie Staal: Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Wageningen University
Lan Wang-Erlandsson: Delft University of Technology
Anja Rammig: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation–atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10–13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14681

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