Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

Stephanie A. Henson (), Claudie Beaulieu, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Matthew Long, Roland Séférian, Jerry Tjiputra and Jorge L. Sarmiento
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Stephanie A. Henson: National Oceanography Centre
Claudie Beaulieu: Ocean and Earth Sciences, University of Southampton
Tatiana Ilyina: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Jasmin G. John: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Matthew Long: Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Roland Séférian: Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France/CNRS
Jerry Tjiputra: Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Jorge L. Sarmiento: Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14682

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