Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks

Brian Walsh (), Philippe Ciais, Ivan A. Janssens, Josep Peñuelas, Keywan Riahi, Felicjan Rydzak, Detlef P. van Vuuren and Michael Obersteiner
Additional contact information
Brian Walsh: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Philippe Ciais: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de L’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ
Ivan A. Janssens: University of Antwerp
Josep Peñuelas: CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Felicjan Rydzak: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Detlef P. van Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Michael Obersteiner: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract In December 2015 in Paris, leaders committed to achieve global, net decarbonization of human activities before 2100. This achievement would halt and even reverse anthropogenic climate change through the net removal of carbon from the atmosphere. However, the Paris documents contain few specific prescriptions for emissions mitigation, leaving various countries to pursue their own agendas. In this analysis, we project energy and land-use emissions mitigation pathways through 2100, subject to best-available parameterization of carbon-climate feedbacks and interdependencies. We find that, barring unforeseen and transformative technological advancement, anthropogenic emissions need to peak within the next 10 years, to maintain realistic pathways to meeting the COP21 emissions and warming targets. Fossil fuel consumption will probably need to be reduced below a quarter of primary energy supply by 2100 and the allowable consumption rate drops even further if negative emissions technologies remain technologically or economically unfeasible at the global scale.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14856

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