Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States

John C. Fyfe (), Chris Derksen, Lawrence Mudryk, Gregory M. Flato, Benjamin D. Santer, Neil C. Swart, Noah P. Molotch, Xuebin Zhang, Hui Wan, Vivek K. Arora, John Scinocca and Yanjun Jiao
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John C. Fyfe: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada
Chris Derksen: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Lawrence Mudryk: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Gregory M. Flato: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada
Benjamin D. Santer: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Neil C. Swart: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada
Noah P. Molotch: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado
Xuebin Zhang: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Hui Wan: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Vivek K. Arora: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada
John Scinocca: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada
Yanjun Jiao: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract Peak runoff in streams and rivers of the western United States is strongly influenced by melting of accumulated mountain snowpack. A significant decline in this resource has a direct connection to streamflow, with substantial economic and societal impacts. Observations and reanalyses indicate that between the 1980s and 2000s, there was a 10–20% loss in the annual maximum amount of water contained in the region’s snowpack. Here we show that this loss is consistent with results from a large ensemble of climate simulations forced with natural and anthropogenic changes, but is inconsistent with simulations forced by natural changes alone. A further loss of up to 60% is projected within the next 30 years. Uncertainties in loss estimates depend on the size and the rate of response to continued anthropogenic forcing and the magnitude and phasing of internal decadal variability. The projected losses have serious implications for the hydropower, municipal and agricultural sectors in the region.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14996

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