Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries

Yu Liu (), Kim M. Cobb, Huiming Song, Qiang Li, Ching-Yao Li, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Zhisheng An, Weijian Zhou, Qiufang Cai, Jinbao Li, Steven W. Leavitt, Changfeng Sun, Ruochen Mei, Chuan-Chou Shen, Ming-Hsun Chan, Junyan Sun, Libin Yan, Ying Lei, Yongyong Ma, Xuxiang Li, Deliang Chen and Hans W. Linderholm
Additional contact information
Yu Liu: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Kim M. Cobb: School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology
Huiming Song: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Qiang Li: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ching-Yao Li: Tung Fang Design Institute
Takeshi Nakatsuka: Research Institute for Humanity and Nature
Zhisheng An: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Weijian Zhou: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Qiufang Cai: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jinbao Li: The University of Hong Kong
Steven W. Leavitt: The Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona
Changfeng Sun: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ruochen Mei: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Chuan-Chou Shen: High-Precision Mass Spectrometry and Environment Change Laboratory (HISPEC), National Taiwan University
Ming-Hsun Chan: National Chiayi University
Junyan Sun: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Libin Yan: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ying Lei: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yongyong Ma: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xuxiang Li: School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University
Deliang Chen: Regional Climate Group, University of Gothenburg
Hans W. Linderholm: Regional Climate Group, University of Gothenburg

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15386

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