Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming

Kaustubh Thirumalai (), Pedro N. DiNezio, Yuko Okumura and Clara Deser
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Kaustubh Thirumalai: Institute for Geophysics, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, J. J. Pickle Research Campus
Pedro N. DiNezio: Institute for Geophysics, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, J. J. Pickle Research Campus
Yuko Okumura: Institute for Geophysics, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, J. J. Pickle Research Campus
Clara Deser: Climate Analysis Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015–16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15531

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