Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century

T.I.E. Veldkamp (), Y. Wada, J.C.J.H. Aerts, P. Döll, S. N. Gosling, J. Liu, Y. Masaki, T. Oki, S. Ostberg, Y. Pokhrel, Y. Satoh, H. Kim and P. J. Ward
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T.I.E. Veldkamp: Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Y. Wada: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
J.C.J.H. Aerts: Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
P. Döll: Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt
S. N. Gosling: School of Geography, University of Nottingham
J. Liu: School of Environmental Science and Engineering, South University of Science and Technology of China
Y. Masaki: National Institute for Environmental Studies
T. Oki: Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo
S. Ostberg: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Y. Pokhrel: Michigan State University, East Lansing
Y. Satoh: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
H. Kim: Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo
P. J. Ward: Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Water scarcity is rapidly increasing in many regions. In a novel, multi-model assessment, we examine how human interventions (HI: land use and land cover change, man-made reservoirs and human water use) affected monthly river water availability and water scarcity over the period 1971–2010. Here we show that HI drastically change the critical dimensions of water scarcity, aggravating water scarcity for 8.8% (7.4–16.5%) of the global population but alleviating it for another 8.3% (6.4–15.8%). Positive impacts of HI mostly occur upstream, whereas HI aggravate water scarcity downstream; HI cause water scarcity to travel downstream. Attribution of water scarcity changes to HI components is complex and varies among the hydrological models. Seasonal variation in impacts and dominant HI components is also substantial. A thorough consideration of the spatially and temporally varying interactions among HI components and of uncertainties is therefore crucial for the success of water scarcity adaptation by HI.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15697

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