Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean

Marius Årthun (), Tor Eldevik, Ellen Viste, Helge Drange, Tore Furevik, Helen L. Johnson and Noel S. Keenlyside
Additional contact information
Marius Årthun: Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Tor Eldevik: Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Ellen Viste: Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Helge Drange: Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Tore Furevik: Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Helen L. Johnson: Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Noel S. Keenlyside: Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract It is commonly understood that a potential for skillful climate prediction resides in the ocean. It nevertheless remains unresolved to what extent variable ocean heat is imprinted on the atmosphere to realize its predictive potential over land. Here we assess from observations whether anomalous heat in the Gulf Stream's northern extension provides predictability of northwestern European and Arctic climate. We show that variations in ocean temperature in the high latitude North Atlantic and Nordic Seas are reflected in the climate of northwestern Europe and in winter Arctic sea ice extent. Statistical regression models show that a significant part of northern climate variability thus can be skillfully predicted up to a decade in advance based on the state of the ocean. Particularly, we predict that Norwegian air temperature will decrease over the coming years, although staying above the long-term (1981–2010) average. Winter Arctic sea ice extent will remain low but with a general increase towards 2020.

Date: 2017
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15875 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms15875

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15875

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().