Potential increase in coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise suggested by considering hydrodynamic attenuation effects

José F. Rodríguez (), Patricia M. Saco, Steven Sandi, Neil Saintilan and Gerardo Riccardi
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José F. Rodríguez: School of Engineering and Centre for Water Security and Environmental Sustainability, The University of Newcastle
Patricia M. Saco: School of Engineering and Centre for Water Security and Environmental Sustainability, The University of Newcastle
Steven Sandi: School of Engineering and Centre for Water Security and Environmental Sustainability, The University of Newcastle
Neil Saintilan: Macquarie University
Gerardo Riccardi: Department of Hydraulics and Research Council of National University of Rosario (CIUNR)

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract The future of coastal wetlands and their ecological value depend on their capacity to adapt to the interacting effects of human impacts and sea-level rise. Even though extensive wetland loss due to submergence is a possible scenario, its magnitude is highly uncertain due to limited understanding of hydrodynamic and bio-geomorphic interactions over time. In particular, the effect of man-made drainage modifications on hydrodynamic attenuation and consequent wetland evolution is poorly understood. Predictions are further complicated by the presence of a number of vegetation types that change over time and also contribute to flow attenuation. Here, we show that flow attenuation affects wetland vegetation by modifying its wetting-drying regime and inundation depth, increasing its vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our simulations for an Australian subtropical wetland predict much faster wetland loss than commonly used models that do not consider flow attenuation.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms16094

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