The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave

Eric C. J. Oliver (), Jessica A. Benthuysen, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Alistair J. Hobday, Neil J. Holbrook, Craig N. Mundy and Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick
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Eric C. J. Oliver: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
Jessica A. Benthuysen: Australian Institute of Marine Science
Nathaniel L. Bindoff: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
Alistair J. Hobday: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Neil J. Holbrook: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
Craig N. Mundy: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick: Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Gate 11 Botany Street, Library Walk, Level 4, Mathews Building, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract The Tasman Sea off southeast Australia exhibited its longest and most intense marine heatwave ever recorded in 2015/16. Here we report on several inter-related aspects of this event: observed characteristics, physical drivers, ecological impacts and the role of climate change. This marine heatwave lasted for 251 days reaching a maximum intensity of 2.9 °C above climatology. The anomalous warming is dominated by anomalous convergence of heat linked to the southward flowing East Australian Current. Ecosystem impacts range from new disease outbreaks in farmed shellfish, mortality of wild molluscs and out-of-range species observations. Global climate models indicate it is very likely to be that the occurrence of an extreme warming event of this duration or intensity in this region is respectively ≥330 times and ≥6.8 times as likely to be due to the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Climate projections indicate that event likelihoods will increase in the future, due to increasing anthropogenic influences.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms16101

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