Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

M. C. Ockenden (), M. J. Hollaway, K. J. Beven, A. L. Collins, R. Evans, P. D. Falloon, K. J. Forber, K. M. Hiscock, R. Kahana, C. J. A. Macleod, W. Tych, M. L. Villamizar, C. Wearing, P. J. A. Withers, J. G. Zhou, P. A. Barker, S. Burke, J. E. Freer, P. J. Johnes, M. A. Snell, B. W. J. Surridge and P. M. Haygarth ()
Additional contact information
M. C. Ockenden: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University
M. J. Hollaway: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University
K. J. Beven: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University
A. L. Collins: Rothamsted Research North Wyke
R. Evans: Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University
P. D. Falloon: Met Office Hadley Centre
K. J. Forber: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University
K. M. Hiscock: University of East Anglia
R. Kahana: Met Office Hadley Centre
C. J. A. Macleod: James Hutton Institute
W. Tych: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University
M. L. Villamizar: School of Engineering, Liverpool University
C. Wearing: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University
P. J. A. Withers: Bangor University, Bangor
J. G. Zhou: School of Computing, Mathematics & Digital Technology, Manchester Metropolitan University
P. A. Barker: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University
S. Burke: British Geological Survey
J. E. Freer: University of Bristol
P. J. Johnes: University of Bristol
M. A. Snell: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University
B. W. J. Surridge: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University
P. M. Haygarth: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

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