Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise

Christian Che-Castaldo (), Stephanie Jenouvrier, Casey Youngflesh, Kevin T. Shoemaker, Grant Humphries, Philip McDowall, Laura Landrum, Marika M. Holland, Yun Li, Rubao Ji and Heather J. Lynch ()
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Christian Che-Castaldo: Life Sciences 106
Stephanie Jenouvrier: Mailstop 50, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Casey Youngflesh: Life Sciences 106
Kevin T. Shoemaker: Life Sciences 106
Grant Humphries: Life Sciences 106
Philip McDowall: Life Sciences 106
Laura Landrum: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Marika M. Holland: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Yun Li: College of Marine Science, University of South Florida
Rubao Ji: Mailstop 33, Redfield 2-14, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Heather J. Lynch: Life Sciences 106

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adélie penguin abundance data (1982–2015) in the Antarctic, covering >95% of their population globally. We find that process error exceeds observation error in this system, and that continent-wide “year effects” strongly influence population growth rates. Our findings have important implications for the use of Adélie penguins in Southern Ocean feedback management, and suggest that aggregating abundance across space provides the fastest reliable signal of true population change for species whose dynamics are driven by stochastic processes.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0

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