Causes of model dry and warm bias over central U.S. and impact on climate projections

Yanluan Lin (), Wenhao Dong, Minghua Zhang (), Yuanyu Xie, Wei Xue, Jianbin Huang and Yong Luo
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Yanluan Lin: Tsinghua University
Wenhao Dong: Tsinghua University
Minghua Zhang: Stony Brook University
Yuanyu Xie: Tsinghua University
Wei Xue: Tsinghua University
Jianbin Huang: Tsinghua University
Yong Luo: Tsinghua University

Nature Communications, 2017, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Climate models show a conspicuous summer warm and dry bias over the central United States. Using results from 19 climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we report a persistent dependence of warm bias on dry bias with the precipitation deficit leading the warm bias over this region. The precipitation deficit is associated with the widespread failure of models in capturing strong rainfall events in summer over the central U.S. A robust linear relationship between the projected warming and the present-day warm bias enables us to empirically correct future temperature projections. By the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario, the corrections substantially narrow the intermodel spread of the projections and reduce the projected temperature by 2.5 K, resulting mainly from the removal of the warm bias. Instead of a sharp decrease, after this correction the projected precipitation is nearly neutral for all scenarios.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-01040-2

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