Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations

Matias Heino (), Michael J. Puma, Philip J. Ward, Dieter Gerten, Vera Heck, Stefan Siebert and Matti Kummu ()
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Matias Heino: Aalto University
Michael J. Puma: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Philip J. Ward: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Dieter Gerten: Research Domain of Earth System Analysis
Vera Heck: Aalto University
Stefan Siebert: University of Bonn
Matti Kummu: Aalto University

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter 2015–2016, leading to food insecurity in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to impact crop yields worldwide. Here we assess for the first time in a unified framework the relationships between ENSO, IOD and NAO and simulated crop productivity at the sub-country scale. Our findings reveal that during 1961–2010, crop productivity is significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation in two-thirds of global cropland area. Besides observing new possible links, especially for NAO in Africa and the Middle East, our analyses confirm several known relationships between crop productivity and these oscillations. Our results improve the understanding of climatological crop productivity drivers, which is essential for enhancing food security in many of the most vulnerable places on the planet.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02071-5

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