Impact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation

C. E. Scott (), S. A. Monks, D. V. Spracklen, S. R. Arnold, P. M. Forster, A. Rap, M. Äijälä, P. Artaxo, K. S. Carslaw, M. P. Chipperfield, M. Ehn, S. Gilardoni, L. Heikkinen, M. Kulmala, T. Petäjä, C. L. S. Reddington, L. V. Rizzo, E. Swietlicki, E. Vignati and C. Wilson
Additional contact information
C. E. Scott: University of Leeds
S. A. Monks: University of Colorado
D. V. Spracklen: University of Leeds
S. R. Arnold: University of Leeds
P. M. Forster: University of Leeds
A. Rap: University of Leeds
M. Äijälä: University of Helsinki
P. Artaxo: University of Sao Paulo
K. S. Carslaw: University of Leeds
M. P. Chipperfield: University of Leeds
M. Ehn: University of Helsinki
S. Gilardoni: Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
L. Heikkinen: University of Helsinki
M. Kulmala: University of Helsinki
T. Petäjä: University of Helsinki
C. L. S. Reddington: University of Leeds
L. V. Rizzo: Institute of Environmental, Chemical and Pharmaceutics Sciences, Federal University of Sao Paulo, UNIFESP
E. Swietlicki: Lund University
E. Vignati: Directorate for Energy Transport and Climate
C. Wilson: University of Leeds

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The climate impact of deforestation depends on the relative strength of several biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. In addition to affecting the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) and moisture with the atmosphere and surface albedo, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) that alter the formation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol, ozone and methane. Here we show that a scenario of complete global deforestation results in a net positive radiative forcing (RF; 0.12 W m−2) from SLCFs, with the negative RF from decreases in ozone and methane concentrations partially offsetting the positive aerosol RF. Combining RFs due to CO2, surface albedo and SLCFs suggests that global deforestation could cause 0.8 K warming after 100 years, with SLCFs contributing 8% of the effect. However, deforestation as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario leads to zero net RF from SLCF, primarily due to nonlinearities in the aerosol indirect effect.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02412-4

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