Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift

Jiankai Zhang, Wenshou Tian (), Fei Xie, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Seok-Woo Son, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Sandip Dhomse, Yuanyuan Han, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O’Connor, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Daniele Visioni, Wuke Wang and Guang Zeng
Additional contact information
Jiankai Zhang: Lanzhou University
Wenshou Tian: Lanzhou University
Fei Xie: Beijing Normal University
Martyn P. Chipperfield: University of Leeds
Wuhu Feng: University of Leeds
Seok-Woo Son: Seoul National University
N. Luke Abraham: University of Cambridge
Alexander T. Archibald: University of Cambridge
Slimane Bekki: LATMOS, Université Pierre et Marie Curie
Neal Butchart: Met Office Hadley Centre
Makoto Deushi: Meteorological Research Institute
Sandip Dhomse: University of Leeds
Yuanyuan Han: Lanzhou University
Patrick Jöckel: Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Münchner
Douglas Kinnison: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Ole Kirner: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Steinbuch Centre for Computing, P.O Box 3640
Martine Michou: METEO-FRANCE CNRM
Olaf Morgenstern: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
Fiona M. O’Connor: Met Office Hadley Centre
Giovanni Pitari: Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche e Chimiche Via Vetoio, Università dell’Aquila
David A. Plummer: Climate Research Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada
Laura E. Revell: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich (ETHZ)
Eugene Rozanov: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich (ETHZ)
Daniele Visioni: Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche e Chimiche Via Vetoio, Università dell’Aquila
Wuke Wang: Nanjing University
Guang Zeng: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in limiting major ozone-depleting substance emissions, and consequently stratospheric ozone concentrations are expected to recover this century. However, there is a large uncertainty in the rate of regional ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we identify a Eurasia-North America dipole mode in the total column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere, showing negative and positive total column ozone anomaly centres over Eurasia and North America, respectively. The positive trend of this mode explains an enhanced total column ozone decline over the Eurasian continent in the past three decades, which is closely related to the polar vortex shift towards Eurasia. Multiple chemistry-climate-model simulations indicate that the positive Eurasia-North America dipole trend in late winter is likely to continue in the near future. Our findings suggest that the anticipated ozone recovery in late winter will be sensitive not only to the ozone-depleting substance decline but also to the polar vortex changes, and could be substantially delayed in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02565-2

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