Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs

Mikhail Sofiev, James J. Winebrake, Lasse Johansson, Edward W. Carr, Marje Prank, Joana Soares, Julius Vira, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen () and James J. Corbett ()
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Mikhail Sofiev: Finnish Meteorological Institute
James J. Winebrake: Rochester Institute of Technology
Lasse Johansson: Finnish Meteorological Institute
Edward W. Carr: Energy and Environmental Research Associates, LLC
Marje Prank: Finnish Meteorological Institute
Joana Soares: Finnish Meteorological Institute
Julius Vira: Finnish Meteorological Institute
Rostislav Kouznetsov: Finnish Meteorological Institute
Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen: Finnish Meteorological Institute
James J. Corbett: University of Delaware

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract We evaluate public health and climate impacts of low-sulphur fuels in global shipping. Using high-resolution emissions inventories, integrated atmospheric models, and health risk functions, we assess ship-related PM2.5 pollution impacts in 2020 with and without the use of low-sulphur fuels. Cleaner marine fuels will reduce ship-related premature mortality and morbidity by 34 and 54%, respectively, representing a ~ 2.6% global reduction in PM2.5 cardiovascular and lung cancer deaths and a ~3.6% global reduction in childhood asthma. Despite these reductions, low-sulphur marine fuels will still account for ~250k deaths and ~6.4 M childhood asthma cases annually, and more stringent standards beyond 2020 may provide additional health benefits. Lower sulphur fuels also reduce radiative cooling from ship aerosols by ~80%, equating to a ~3% increase in current estimates of total anthropogenic forcing. Therefore, stronger international shipping policies may need to achieve climate and health targets by jointly reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution.

Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-02774-9

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02774-9

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