Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts

Erwan Monier (), Sergey Paltsev (), Andrei Sokolov, Y.-H. Henry Chen, Xiang Gao, Qudsia Ejaz, Evan Couzo, C. Adam Schlosser, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Charles Fant, Jeffery Scott, David Kicklighter, Jennifer Morris, Henry Jacoby, Ronald Prinn and Martin Haigh
Additional contact information
Erwan Monier: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sergey Paltsev: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Andrei Sokolov: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Y.-H. Henry Chen: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Xiang Gao: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Qudsia Ejaz: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Evan Couzo: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
C. Adam Schlosser: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Stephanie Dutkiewicz: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Charles Fant: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Jeffery Scott: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
David Kicklighter: Marine Biological Laboratory
Jennifer Morris: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Henry Jacoby: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Ronald Prinn: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Martin Haigh: Shell Centre

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis—which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios—we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-02984-9

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