Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia

Masayuki Kondo (), Kazuhito Ichii, Prabir K. Patra, Joseph G. Canadell, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Leonardo Calle, Yi Y. Liu, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Tazu Saeki, Nobuko Saigusa, Pierre Friedlingstein, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Fang Li, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Sönke Zaehle, Andy Wiltshire, Frederic Chevallier, Takashi Maki, Takashi Nakamura, Yosuke Niwa and Christian Rödenbeck
Additional contact information
Masayuki Kondo: Chiba University
Kazuhito Ichii: Chiba University
Prabir K. Patra: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Joseph G. Canadell: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Benjamin Poulter: Montana State University
Stephen Sitch: University of Exeter
Leonardo Calle: Montana State University
Yi Y. Liu: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Albert I. J. M. van Dijk: Australian National University
Tazu Saeki: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Nobuko Saigusa: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Pierre Friedlingstein: University of Exeter
Almut Arneth: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
Anna Harper: University of Exeter
Atul K. Jain: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Etsushi Kato: Institute of Applied Energy
Charles Koven: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Fang Li: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Thomas A. M. Pugh: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
Sönke Zaehle: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Andy Wiltshire: Met Office Hadley Centre
Frederic Chevallier: CEA CNRS UVSQ
Takashi Maki: Meteorological Research Institute
Takashi Nakamura: Japan Meteorological Agency
Yosuke Niwa: Meteorological Research Institute
Christian Rödenbeck: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract An integrated understanding of the biogeochemical consequences of climate extremes and land use changes is needed to constrain land-surface feedbacks to atmospheric CO2 from associated climate change. Past assessments of the global carbon balance have shown particularly high uncertainty in Southeast Asia. Here, we use a combination of model ensembles to show that intensified land use change made Southeast Asia a strong source of CO2 from the 1980s to 1990s, whereas the region was close to carbon neutral in the 2000s due to an enhanced CO2 fertilization effect and absence of moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Our findings suggest that despite ongoing deforestation, CO2 emissions were substantially decreased during the 2000s, largely owing to milder climate that restores photosynthetic capacity and suppresses peat and deforestation fire emissions. The occurrence of strong El Niño events after 2009 suggests that the region has returned to conditions of increased vulnerability of carbon stocks.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-03374-x

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