Constant strain accumulation rate between major earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault

Ekbal Hussain (), Tim J. Wright, Richard J. Walters, David P. S. Bekaert, Ryan Lloyd and Andrew Hooper
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Ekbal Hussain: University of Leeds
Tim J. Wright: University of Leeds
Richard J. Walters: Durham University
David P. S. Bekaert: California Institute of Technology
Ryan Lloyd: University of Bristol
Andrew Hooper: University of Leeds

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Earthquakes are caused by the release of tectonic strain accumulated between events. Recent advances in satellite geodesy mean we can now measure this interseismic strain accumulation with a high degree of accuracy. But it remains unclear how to interpret short-term geodetic observations, measured over decades, when estimating the seismic hazard of faults accumulating strain over centuries. Here, we show that strain accumulation rates calculated from geodetic measurements around a major transform fault are constant for its entire 250-year interseismic period, except in the ~10 years following an earthquake. The shear strain rate history requires a weak fault zone embedded within a strong lower crust with viscosity greater than ~1020 Pa s. The results support the notion that short-term geodetic observations can directly contribute to long-term seismic hazard assessment and suggest that lower-crustal viscosities derived from postseismic studies are not representative of the lower crust at all spatial and temporal scales.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-03739-2

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