Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 °C warming

Wenju Cai (), Guojian Wang, Bolan Gan, Lixin Wu (), Agus Santoso, Xiaopei Lin, Zhaohui Chen, Fan Jia and Toshio Yamagata
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Wenju Cai: Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Guojian Wang: Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Bolan Gan: Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Lixin Wu: Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Agus Santoso: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Xiaopei Lin: Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Zhaohui Chen: Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Fan Jia: Chinese Academy of Science
Toshio Yamagata: JAMSTEC

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) affects weather, agriculture, ecosystems, and public health worldwide, particularly when exacerbated by an extreme El Niño. The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming below 2 °C and ideally below 1.5 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), but how extreme pIOD will respond to this target is unclear. Here we show that the frequency increases linearly as the warming proceeds, and doubles at 1.5 °C warming from the pre-industrial level (statistically significant above the 90% confidence level), underscored by a strong intermodel agreement with 11 out of 13 models producing an increase. However, in sharp contrast to a continuous increase in extreme El Niño frequency long after GMT stabilisation, the extreme pIOD frequency peaks as the GMT stabilises. The contrasting response corresponds to a 50% reduction in frequency of an extreme El Niño preceded by an extreme pIOD from that projected under a business-as-usual scenario.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-03789-6

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