Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation

Juan Alcalde (), Stephanie Flude, Mark Wilkinson, Gareth Johnson, Katriona Edlmann, Clare E. Bond, Vivian Scott, Stuart M. V. Gilfillan, Xènia Ogaya and R. Stuart Haszeldine
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Juan Alcalde: University of Aberdeen
Stephanie Flude: University of Edinburgh
Mark Wilkinson: University of Edinburgh
Gareth Johnson: University of Edinburgh
Katriona Edlmann: University of Edinburgh
Clare E. Bond: University of Aberdeen
Vivian Scott: University of Edinburgh
Stuart M. V. Gilfillan: University of Edinburgh
Xènia Ogaya: Universitat de Barcelona
R. Stuart Haszeldine: University of Edinburgh

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO2 reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic CO2 storage security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. Here we present a numerical program that calculates CO2 storage security and leakage to the atmosphere over 10,000 years. This combines quantitative estimates of geological subsurface CO2 retention, and of surface CO2 leakage. We calculate that realistically well-regulated storage in regions with moderate well densities has a 50% probability that leakage remains below 0.0008% per year, with over 98% of the injected CO2 retained in the subsurface over 10,000 years. An unrealistic scenario, where CO2 storage is inadequately regulated, estimates that more than 78% will be retained over 10,000 years. Our modelling results suggest that geological storage of CO2 can be a secure climate change mitigation option, but we note that long-term behaviour of CO2 in the subsurface remains a key uncertainty.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04423-1

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