Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data

Benjamin P. Horton (), Ian Shennan, Sarah L. Bradley, Niamh Cahill, Matthew Kirwan, Robert Kopp () and Timothy A. Shaw
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Benjamin P. Horton: Nanyang Technological University
Ian Shennan: Durham University
Sarah L. Bradley: Delft University of Technology
Niamh Cahill: University College Dublin
Matthew Kirwan: College of William and Mary
Timothy A. Shaw: Nanyang Technological University

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract Tidal marshes rank among Earth’s vulnerable ecosystems, which will retreat if future rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) exceed marshes’ ability to accrete vertically. Here, we assess the limits to marsh vulnerability by analyzing >780 Holocene reconstructions of tidal marsh evolution in Great Britain. These reconstructions include both transgressive (tidal marsh retreat) and regressive (tidal marsh expansion) contacts. The probability of a marsh retreat was conditional upon Holocene rates of RSLR, which varied between −7.7 and 15.2 mm/yr. Holocene records indicate that marshes are nine times more likely to retreat than expand when RSLR rates are ≥7.1 mm/yr. Coupling estimated probabilities of marsh retreat with projections of future RSLR suggests a major risk of tidal marsh loss in the twenty-first century. All of Great Britain has a >80% probability of a marsh retreat under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 by 2100, with areas of southern and eastern England achieving this probability by 2040.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05080-0

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