Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction

Giorgio Guzzetta, Cecilia A. Marques-Toledo, Roberto Rosà, Mauro Teixeira and Stefano Merler ()
Additional contact information
Giorgio Guzzetta: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Cecilia A. Marques-Toledo: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Roberto Rosà: Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit
Mauro Teixeira: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Stefano Merler: Bruno Kessler Foundation

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract The ongoing geographical expansion of dengue is inducing an epidemiological transition in many previously transmission-free urban areas, which are now prone to annual epidemics. To analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in these settings, we reconstruct transmission chains in Porto Alegre, Brazil, by applying a Bayesian inference model to geo-located dengue cases from 2013 to 2016. We found that transmission clusters expand by linearly increasing their diameter with time, at an average rate of about 600 m month−1. The majority (70.4%, 95% CI: 58.2–79.8%) of individual transmission events occur within a distance of 500 m. Cluster diameter, duration, and epidemic size are proportionally smaller when control interventions were more timely and intense. The results suggest that a large proportion of cases are transmitted via short-distance human movement (

Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05230-4 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-05230-4

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05230-4

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().