Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets

Anna B. Harper (), Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, Joanna House, Chris Huntingford, Timothy M. Lenton, Stephen Sitch, Eleanor Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, William J. Collins, Edward Comyn-Platt, Vassilis Daioglou, Jonathan C. Doelman, Garry Hayman, Eddy Robertson, Detlef Vuuren, Andy Wiltshire, Christopher P. Webber, Ana Bastos, Lena Boysen, Philippe Ciais, Narayanappa Devaraju, Atul K. Jain, Andreas Krause, Ben Poulter and Shijie Shu
Additional contact information
Anna B. Harper: University of Exeter
Tom Powell: University of Exeter
Peter M. Cox: University of Exeter
Joanna House: University of Bristol
Chris Huntingford: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Timothy M. Lenton: University of Exeter
Stephen Sitch: University of Exeter
Eleanor Burke: Met Office Hadley Centre
Sarah E. Chadburn: University of Exeter
William J. Collins: University of Reading
Edward Comyn-Platt: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Vassilis Daioglou: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
Jonathan C. Doelman: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
Garry Hayman: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Eddy Robertson: Met Office Hadley Centre
Detlef Vuuren: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
Andy Wiltshire: Met Office Hadley Centre
Christopher P. Webber: University of Reading
Ana Bastos: Ludwig Maximilians University Munich
Lena Boysen: Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology
Philippe Ciais: Université Paris-Saclay
Narayanappa Devaraju: Université Paris-Saclay
Atul K. Jain: University of Illinois
Andreas Krause: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research—Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU)
Ben Poulter: NASA GSFC, Biospheric Sciences Lab.
Shijie Shu: University of Illinois

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO2 removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 °C climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO2 removal than BECCS.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z

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