Beneficial effects of climate warming on boreal tree growth may be transitory

Loïc D’Orangeville (), Daniel Houle, Louis Duchesne, Richard P. Phillips, Yves Bergeron and Daniel Kneeshaw
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Loïc D’Orangeville: Université du Québec à Montréal
Daniel Houle: Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs du Québec
Louis Duchesne: Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs du Québec
Richard P. Phillips: Indiana University
Yves Bergeron: Université du Québec à Montréal
Daniel Kneeshaw: Université du Québec à Montréal

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Predicted increases in temperature and aridity across the boreal forest region have the potential to alter timber supply and carbon sequestration. Given the widely-observed variation in species sensitivity to climate, there is an urgent need to develop species-specific predictive models that can account for local conditions. Here, we matched the growth of 270,000 trees across a 761,100 km2 region with detailed site-level data to quantify the growth responses of the seven most common boreal tree species in Eastern Canada to changes in climate. Accounting for spatially-explicit species-specific responses, we find that while 2 °C of warming may increase overall forest productivity by 13 ± 3% (mean ± SE) in the absence of disturbance, additional warming could reverse this trend and lead to substantial declines exacerbated by reductions in water availability. Our results confirm the transitory nature of warming-induced growth benefits in the boreal forest and highlight the vulnerability of the ecosystem to excess warming and drying.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05705-4

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