21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes

Katey Walter Anthony (), Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Ingmar Nitze, Steve Frolking, Abraham Emond, Ronald Daanen, Peter Anthony, Prajna Lindgren, Benjamin Jones and Guido Grosse
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Katey Walter Anthony: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Thomas Schneider von Deimling: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Ingmar Nitze: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Steve Frolking: University of New Hampshire
Abraham Emond: Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys
Ronald Daanen: Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys
Peter Anthony: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Prajna Lindgren: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Benjamin Jones: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Guido Grosse: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) modeling has focused on gradual thaw of near-surface permafrost leading to enhanced carbon dioxide and methane emissions that accelerate global climate warming. These state-of-the-art land models have yet to incorporate deeper, abrupt thaw in the PCF. Here we use model data, supported by field observations, radiocarbon dating, and remote sensing, to show that methane and carbon dioxide emissions from abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes will more than double radiative forcing from circumpolar permafrost-soil carbon fluxes this century. Abrupt thaw lake emissions are similar under moderate and high representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), but their relative contribution to the PCF is much larger under the moderate warming scenario. Abrupt thaw accelerates mobilization of deeply frozen, ancient carbon, increasing 14C-depleted permafrost soil carbon emissions by ~125–190% compared to gradual thaw alone. These findings demonstrate the need to incorporate abrupt thaw processes in earth system models for more comprehensive projection of the PCF this century.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9

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