Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax

Michael T. White (), Patrick Walker, Stephan Karl, Manuel W. Hetzel, Tim Freeman, Andreea Waltmann, Moses Laman, Leanne J. Robinson, Azra Ghani and Ivo Mueller
Additional contact information
Michael T. White: Institut Pasteur
Patrick Walker: Imperial College London
Stephan Karl: Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research
Manuel W. Hetzel: Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
Tim Freeman: Rotarians Against Malaria
Andreea Waltmann: Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research
Moses Laman: Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research
Leanne J. Robinson: Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research
Azra Ghani: Imperial College London
Ivo Mueller: Institut Pasteur

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Plasmodium vivax poses unique challenges for malaria control and elimination, notably the potential for relapses to maintain transmission in the face of drug-based treatment and vector control strategies. We developed an individual-based mathematical model of P. vivax transmission calibrated to epidemiological data from Papua New Guinea (PNG). In many settings in PNG, increasing bed net coverage is predicted to reduce transmission to less than 0.1% prevalence by light microscopy, however there is substantial risk of rebounds in transmission if interventions are removed prematurely. In several high transmission settings, model simulations predict that combinations of existing interventions are not sufficient to interrupt P. vivax transmission. This analysis highlights the potential options for the future of P. vivax control: maintaining existing public health gains by keeping transmission suppressed through indefinite distribution of interventions; or continued development of strategies based on existing and new interventions to push for further reduction and towards elimination.

Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05860-8 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-05860-8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05860-8

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().