Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

Miller, David A. W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muths, Erin; Amburgey, Staci M.; Adams, Michael J.; Joseph, Maxwell B.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Ryan, Maureen E.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Calhoun, Daniel L.; Davis, Courtney L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Green, David M.; Hossack, Blake R.; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Walls, Susan C.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Cruickshank, Sam S.; Fellers, Gary M.; Gorman, Thomas A.; Haas, Carola A.; Hughson, Ward; Pilliod, David S.; Price, Steven J.; Ray, Andrew M.; Sadinski, Walt; Saenz, Daniel; Barichivich, William J.; Brand, Adrianne; Brehme, Cheryl S.; Dagit, Rosi; Delaney, Katy S.; Glorioso, Brad M.; Kats, Lee B.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Pearl, Christopher A.; Rochester, Carlton J.; Riley, Seth P. D.; Roth, Mark; Sigafus, Brent H.

Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

David A. W. Miller (), Evan H. Campbell Grant (), Erin Muths (), Staci M. Amburgey, Michael J. Adams, Maxwell B. Joseph, J. Hardin Waddle, Pieter T. J. Johnson, Maureen E. Ryan, Benedikt R. Schmidt, Daniel L. Calhoun, Courtney L. Davis, Robert N. Fisher, David M. Green, Blake R. Hossack, Tracy A. G. Rittenhouse, Susan C. Walls, Larissa L. Bailey, Sam S. Cruickshank, Gary M. Fellers, Thomas A. Gorman, Carola A. Haas, Ward Hughson, David S. Pilliod, Steven J. Price, Andrew M. Ray, Walt Sadinski, Daniel Saenz, William J. Barichivich, Adrianne Brand, Cheryl S. Brehme, Rosi Dagit, Katy S. Delaney, Brad M. Glorioso, Lee B. Kats, Patrick M. Kleeman, Christopher A. Pearl, Carlton J. Rochester, Seth P. D. Riley, Mark Roth and Brent H. Sigafus
Additional contact information
David A. W. Miller: Pennsylvania State University
Evan H. Campbell Grant: SO Conte Anadromous Fish Lab
Erin Muths: Fort Collins Science Center
Staci M. Amburgey: Pennsylvania State University
Michael J. Adams: Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center
Maxwell B. Joseph: University of Colorado, Boulder
J. Hardin Waddle: Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Pieter T. J. Johnson: University of Colorado, Boulder
Maureen E. Ryan: University of Washington
Benedikt R. Schmidt: University of Zurich
Daniel L. Calhoun: South Atlantic Water Science Center
Courtney L. Davis: Pennsylvania State University
Robert N. Fisher: Western Ecological Research Center
David M. Green: McGill University
Blake R. Hossack: Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute
Tracy A. G. Rittenhouse: University of Connecticut
Susan C. Walls: U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Larissa L. Bailey: Colorado State University
Sam S. Cruickshank: University of Zurich
Gary M. Fellers: Western Ecological Research Center
Thomas A. Gorman: Virginia Tech
Carola A. Haas: Virginia Tech
Ward Hughson: Parks Canada
David S. Pilliod: Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center
Steven J. Price: University of Kentucky
Andrew M. Ray: National Park Service
Walt Sadinski: Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center
Daniel Saenz: Southern Research Station, Forest Service
William J. Barichivich: U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Adrianne Brand: SO Conte Anadromous Fish Lab
Cheryl S. Brehme: Western Ecological Research Center
Rosi Dagit: Resource Conservation District of the Santa Monica Mountains
Katy S. Delaney: National Park Service-Santa Monica Mountains Recreation Area
Brad M. Glorioso: Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Lee B. Kats: Pepperdine University
Patrick M. Kleeman: Western Ecological Research Center
Christopher A. Pearl: Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center
Carlton J. Rochester: Western Ecological Research Center
Seth P. D. Riley: National Park Service-Santa Monica Mountains Recreation Area
Mark Roth: Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center
Brent H. Sigafus: Southwest Biological Science Center

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract Changing climate will impact species’ ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06157-6

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