Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe

Heidi Webber (), Frank Ewert, Jørgen E. Olesen, Christoph Müller, Stefan Fronzek, Alex C. Ruane, Maryse Bourgault, Pierre Martre, Behnam Ababaei, Marco Bindi, Roberto Ferrise, Robert Finger, Nándor Fodor, Clara Gabaldón-Leal, Thomas Gaiser, Mohamed Jabloun, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum, Jon I. Lizaso, Ignacio J. Lorite, Loic Manceau, Marco Moriondo, Claas Nendel, Alfredo Rodríguez, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Mikhail A. Semenov, Stefan Siebert, Tommaso Stella, Pierre Stratonovitch, Giacomo Trombi and Daniel Wallach
Additional contact information
Heidi Webber: Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)
Frank Ewert: Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)
Jørgen E. Olesen: Aarhus University
Christoph Müller: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
Stefan Fronzek: Finnish Environment Institute
Alex C. Ruane: National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Maryse Bourgault: Montana State University
Pierre Martre: Montpellier SupAgro
Behnam Ababaei: Montpellier SupAgro
Marco Bindi: University of Florence
Roberto Ferrise: University of Florence
Nándor Fodor: Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Clara Gabaldón-Leal: IFAPA-Centro Alameda del Obispo
Thomas Gaiser: University of Bonn
Mohamed Jabloun: University of Nottingham
Kurt-Christian Kersebaum: Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)
Jon I. Lizaso: Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Ignacio J. Lorite: IFAPA-Centro Alameda del Obispo
Loic Manceau: Montpellier SupAgro
Marco Moriondo: CNR-IBIMET
Claas Nendel: Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)
Alfredo Rodríguez: Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Margarita Ruiz-Ramos: Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Mikhail A. Semenov: Rothamsted Research
Stefan Siebert: University of Göttingen
Tommaso Stella: Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)
Pierre Stratonovitch: Rothamsted Research
Giacomo Trombi: University of Queensland
Daniel Wallach: INRA

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984–2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06525-2

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