Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century

Jan Hjort (), Olli Karjalainen, Juha Aalto, Sebastian Westermann, Vladimir E. Romanovsky, Frederick E. Nelson, Bernd Etzelmüller and Miska Luoto
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Jan Hjort: University of Oulu
Olli Karjalainen: University of Oulu
Juha Aalto: University of Helsinki
Sebastian Westermann: University of Oslo
Vladimir E. Romanovsky: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Frederick E. Nelson: Michigan State University
Bernd Etzelmüller: University of Oslo
Miska Luoto: University of Helsinki

Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere’s permafrost regions under projected climatic changes and quantify fundamental engineering structures at risk by 2050. We show that nearly four million people and 70% of current infrastructure in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost. Our results demonstrate that one-third of pan-Arctic infrastructure and 45% of the hydrocarbon extraction fields in the Russian Arctic are in regions where thaw-related ground instability can cause severe damage to the built environment. Alarmingly, these figures are not reduced substantially even if the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement are reached.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4

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