Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050

Rik Heerden (), Oreane Y. Edelenbosch (), Vassilis Daioglou, Thomas Gallic, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Alice Bella, Francesco Pietro Colelli, Johannes Emmerling, Panagiotis Fragkos, Robin Hasse, Johanna Hoppe, Paul Kishimoto, Florian Leblanc, Julien Lefèvre, Gunnar Luderer, Giacomo Marangoni, Alessio Mastrucci, Hazel Pettifor, Robert Pietzcker, Pedro Rochedo, Bas Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Charlie Wilson, Sonia Yeh, Eleftheria Zisarou and Detlef Vuuren
Additional contact information
Rik Heerden: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Oreane Y. Edelenbosch: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Vassilis Daioglou: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Thomas Gallic: Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED)
Luiz Bernardo Baptista: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Alice Bella: CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Francesco Pietro Colelli: CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Johannes Emmerling: CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Panagiotis Fragkos: E3M-Modelling
Robin Hasse: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Johanna Hoppe: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Paul Kishimoto: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Florian Leblanc: CNRS, CIRED
Julien Lefèvre: AgroParisTech, CIRED
Gunnar Luderer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Giacomo Marangoni: CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Alessio Mastrucci: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Hazel Pettifor: Oxford Centre for the Environment
Robert Pietzcker: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Pedro Rochedo: Khalifa University
Bas Ruijven: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Roberto Schaeffer: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Charlie Wilson: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Sonia Yeh: Chalmers University of Technology
Eleftheria Zisarou: E3M-Modelling
Detlef Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Nature Energy, 2025, vol. 10, issue 3, 380-394

Abstract: Abstract Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1

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