Mapping the cost competitiveness of African green hydrogen imports to Europe

Florian Egli (), Flurina Schneider, Alycia Leonard (), Claire Halloran, Nicolas Salmon, Tobias Schmidt and Stephanie Hirmer ()
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Florian Egli: Technical University of Munich
Flurina Schneider: ETH Zurich
Alycia Leonard: University of Oxford
Claire Halloran: University of Oxford
Nicolas Salmon: University of Oxford
Tobias Schmidt: ETH Zurich
Stephanie Hirmer: University of Oxford

Nature Energy, 2025, vol. 10, issue 6, 750-761

Abstract: Abstract Governments in many European countries have high hopes for cheap green hydrogen (H2) from Africa to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors. Using geospatial levelized cost models, this study evaluates the economic feasibility of exporting green H2 in the form of ammonia from Africa to Europe under four realistic financing scenarios by 2030. Our findings suggest that without European policy interventions, green H2 from Africa remains prohibitively expensive with least costs from €4.2 kgH2−1 to €4.9 kgH2−1 depending on the interest rate environment. Using de-risking policy, we identify 214 locations in six African countries that may be competitive in the current interest rate environment, yet many of these face a challenging security situation casting doubt on long-term investments. Under optimal policy and interest rate scenarios, we find a least cost of €3.2 kgH2−1 in Mauritania by 2030. Overall, de-risking and strategic location selection are key to make African green H2 exports competitive on the global stage.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-025-01768-y

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