The comfort rebound from heat pumps and impact on household cooling behaviour and energy security

Xiaofeng Ye, Yueming Lucy Qiu (), Destenie Nock and Bo Xing
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Xiaofeng Ye: University of Maryland at College Park
Yueming Lucy Qiu: University of Maryland at College Park
Destenie Nock: Carnegie Mellon University
Bo Xing: Salt River Project

Nature Energy, 2025, vol. 10, issue 9, 1166-1177

Abstract: Abstract Adopting clean energy technologies offers households a viable solution to overcome energy insecurity. Heat pumps contribute to this potential by reducing energy expenses and increasing energy services. We examine the role of adopting heat pumps in mitigating energy insecurity, utilizing electricity records from 8,656 households in Phoenix, Arizona. We use a thermal comfort index to examine a household’s energy-limiting behaviour using a temperature–electricity response function. Our regression results show that households with heat pumps initiate cooling at 0.996 °C lower than those without and consume 0.476 kWh less electricity daily per degree increase in temperature. It indicates that heat pumps improve indoor comfort by activating earlier summer cooling. Cost savings from operation have a rebound effect of enabling greater comfort. Furthermore, this adoption reduces the energy equity gap across income groups, resulting in more similar and comfortable cooling start temperatures. This study supports the adoption of clean technologies to reduce energy insecurity.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-025-01845-2

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