Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy independence and climate policies

Jessica Jewell (), Vadim Vinichenko, David McCollum, Nico Bauer, Keywan Riahi, Tino Aboumahboub, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Tom Kober, Volker Krey, Giacomo Marangoni, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Bob van der Zwaan () and Aleh Cherp
Additional contact information
Jessica Jewell: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Energy Program
Vadim Vinichenko: Central European University
David McCollum: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Energy Program
Nico Bauer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain Sustainable Solutions
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Energy Program
Tino Aboumahboub: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain Sustainable Solutions
Oliver Fricko: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Energy Program
Mathijs Harmsen: University of Utrecht, Faculty of Geosciences
Tom Kober: Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Policy Studies
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Energy Program
Giacomo Marangoni: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Climate Change and Sustainable Development Programme
Massimo Tavoni: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Climate Change and Sustainable Development Programme
Detlef P. van Vuuren: University of Utrecht, Faculty of Geosciences
Aleh Cherp: Central European University

Nature Energy, 2016, vol. 1, issue 6, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Ensuring energy security and mitigating climate change are key energy policy priorities. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report emphasized that climate policies can deliver energy security as a co-benefit, in large part through reducing energy imports. Using five state-of-the-art global energy-economy models and eight long-term scenarios, we show that although deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce energy imports, the reverse is not true: ambitious policies constraining energy imports would have an insignificant impact on climate change. Restricting imports of all fuels would lower twenty-first-century emissions by only 2–15% against the Baseline scenario as compared with a 70% reduction in a 450 stabilization scenario. Restricting only oil imports would have virtually no impact on emissions. The modelled energy independence targets could be achieved at policy costs comparable to those of existing climate pledges but a fraction of the cost of limiting global warming to 2 ∘C.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/nenergy.2016.73

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