Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

David L. McCollum (), Jessica Jewell, Volker Krey, Morgan Bazilian, Marianne Fay and Keywan Riahi
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David L. McCollum: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Jessica Jewell: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Morgan Bazilian: The World Bank
Marianne Fay: The World Bank
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Nature Energy, 2016, vol. 1, issue 7, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/nenergy.2016.77

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