Non-Gaussian power grid frequency fluctuations characterized by Lévy-stable laws and superstatistics

Benjamin Schäfer (), Christian Beck, Kazuyuki Aihara, Dirk Witthaut and Marc Timme
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Benjamin Schäfer: Technical University of Dresden
Christian Beck: Queen Mary University of London
Kazuyuki Aihara: The University of Tokyo
Dirk Witthaut: Institute of Energy and Climate Research-Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation
Marc Timme: Technical University of Dresden

Nature Energy, 2018, vol. 3, issue 2, 119-126

Abstract: Abstract Multiple types of fluctuations impact the collective dynamics of power grids and thus challenge their robust operation. Fluctuations result from processes as different as dynamically changing demands, energy trading and an increasing share of renewable power feed-in. Here we analyse principles underlying the dynamics and statistics of power grid frequency fluctuations. Considering frequency time series for a range of power grids, including grids in North America, Japan and Europe, we find a strong deviation from Gaussianity best described as Lévy-stable and q-Gaussian distributions. We present a coarse framework to analytically characterize the impact of arbitrary noise distributions, as well as a superstatistical approach that systematically interprets heavy tails and skewed distributions. We identify energy trading as a substantial contribution to today’s frequency fluctuations and effective damping of the grid as a controlling factor enabling reduction of fluctuation risks, with enhanced effects for small power grids.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-017-0058-z

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