High-resolution techno–ecological modelling of a bioenergy landscape to identify climate mitigation opportunities in cellulosic ethanol production

John L. Field (), Samuel G. Evans, Ernie Marx, Mark Easter, Paul R. Adler, Thai Dinh, Bryan Willson and Keith Paustian
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John L. Field: Colorado State University
Samuel G. Evans: University of California-Berkeley
Ernie Marx: Colorado State University
Mark Easter: Colorado State University
Paul R. Adler: Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service
Thai Dinh: University of Oklahoma
Bryan Willson: Colorado State University
Keith Paustian: Colorado State University

Nature Energy, 2018, vol. 3, issue 3, 211-219

Abstract: Abstract Although dedicated energy crops will probably be an important feedstock for future cellulosic bioenergy production, it is unknown how they can best be integrated into existing agricultural systems. Here we use the DayCent ecosystem model to simulate various scenarios for growing switchgrass in the heterogeneous landscape that surrounds a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol biorefinery in southwestern Kansas, and quantify the associated fuel production costs and lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We show that the GHG footprint of ethanol production can be reduced by up to 22 g of CO2 equivalent per megajoule (CO2e MJ–1) through careful optimization of the soils cultivated and corresponding fertilizer application rates (the US Renewable Fuel Standard requires a 56 gCO2e MJ−1 lifecycle emissions reduction for ‘cellulosic’ biofuels compared with conventional gasoline). This improved climate performance is realizable at modest additional costs, less than the current value of low-carbon fuel incentives. We also demonstrate that existing subsidized switchgrass plantings within this landscape probably achieve suboptimal GHG mitigation, as would landscape designs that strictly minimize the biomass collection radius or target certain marginal lands.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-018-0088-1

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