A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

Arnulf Grubler (), Charlie Wilson, Nuno Bento, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Volker Krey, David L. McCollum, Narasimha D. Rao, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Simon Stercke, Jonathan Cullen, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Fei Guo, Matt Gidden, Peter Havlik, Daniel Huppmann, Gregor Kiesewetter, Peter Rafaj, Wolfgang Schoepp and Hugo Valin
Additional contact information
Arnulf Grubler: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Charlie Wilson: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Nuno Bento: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Benigna Boza-Kiss: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
David L. McCollum: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Narasimha D. Rao: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Joeri Rogelj: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Simon Stercke: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Jonathan Cullen: University of Cambridge Department of Engineering
Stefan Frank: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Oliver Fricko: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Fei Guo: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Matt Gidden: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Daniel Huppmann: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Gregor Kiesewetter: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Peter Rafaj: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Wolfgang Schoepp: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Hugo Valin: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Nature Energy, 2018, vol. 3, issue 6, 515-527

Abstract: Abstract Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6

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