Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

David L. McCollum (), Wenji Zhou, Christoph Bertram, Harmen-Sytze Boer, Valentina Bosetti, Sebastian Busch, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Marianne Fay, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Matthew Gidden, Mathijs Harmsen, Daniel Huppmann, Gokul Iyer, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Claire Nicolas, Shonali Pachauri, Simon Parkinson, Miguel Poblete-Cazenave, Peter Rafaj, Narasimha Rao, Julie Rozenberg, Andreas Schmitz, Wolfgang Schoepp, Detlef van Vuuren and Keywan Riahi
Additional contact information
David L. McCollum: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Wenji Zhou: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Christoph Bertram: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Harmen-Sytze Boer: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Sebastian Busch: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Marianne Fay: The World Bank
Oliver Fricko: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Shinichiro Fujimori: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Matthew Gidden: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Mathijs Harmsen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Daniel Huppmann: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Gokul Iyer: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Elmar Kriegler: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Claire Nicolas: The World Bank
Shonali Pachauri: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Simon Parkinson: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Miguel Poblete-Cazenave: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Peter Rafaj: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Narasimha Rao: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Julie Rozenberg: The World Bank
Andreas Schmitz: Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission
Wolfgang Schoepp: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Detlef van Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Nature Energy, 2018, vol. 3, issue 7, 589-599

Abstract: Abstract Low-carbon investments are necessary for driving the energy system transformation that is called for by both the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Improving understanding of the scale and nature of these investments under diverging technology and policy futures is therefore of great importance to decision makers. Here, using six global modelling frameworks, we show that the pronounced reallocation of the investment portfolio required to transform the energy system will not be initiated by the current suite of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions. Charting a course toward ‘well below 2 °C’ instead sees low-carbon investments overtaking fossil investments globally by around 2025 or before and growing thereafter. Pursuing the 1.5 °C target demands a marked upscaling in low-carbon capital beyond that of a 2 °C-consistent future. Actions consistent with an energy transformation would increase the costs of achieving the goals of energy access and food security, but reduce the costs of achieving air-quality goals.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z

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