Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

David L. McCollum (), Charlie Wilson, Michela Bevione, Samuel Carrara, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Johannes Emmerling, Céline Guivarch, Panagiotis Karkatsoulis, Ilkka Keppo, Volker Krey, Zhenhong Lin, Eoin Ó Broin, Leonidas Paroussos, Hazel Pettifor, Kalai Ramea, Keywan Riahi, Fuminori Sano, Baltazar Solano Rodriguez and Detlef P. Vuuren
Additional contact information
David L. McCollum: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Charlie Wilson: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Michela Bevione: Climate and Sustainable Innovation (CSI) Program, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), and Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division (ECIP), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)
Samuel Carrara: Climate and Sustainable Innovation (CSI) Program, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), and Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division (ECIP), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)
Oreane Y. Edelenbosch: Climate, Air and Energy Department, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Panagiotis Karkatsoulis: National Technical University of Athens
Ilkka Keppo: University College London, Central House
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Zhenhong Lin: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)
Eoin Ó Broin: Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) & Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines (SMASH)
Hazel Pettifor: University of East Anglia
Kalai Ramea: University of California, Davis
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Fuminori Sano: Systems Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez: University College London, Central House
Detlef P. Vuuren: Climate, Air and Energy Department, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Nature Energy, 2018, vol. 3, issue 8, 664-673

Abstract: Abstract Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z

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