Techno-economic viability of silicon-based tandem photovoltaic modules in the United States

Zhengshan J. Yu (), Joe V. Carpenter and Zachary C. Holman ()
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Zhengshan J. Yu: Arizona State University
Joe V. Carpenter: Arizona State University
Zachary C. Holman: Arizona State University

Nature Energy, 2018, vol. 3, issue 9, 747-753

Abstract: Abstract Tandem photovoltaic modules with silicon bottom cells offer a promising route to exceed the single-junction photovoltaic efficiency limit and further lower the levelized cost of solar electricity. However, it is unclear whether continued improvements in efficiency will render tandem modules cost-competitive with their two constituent sub-cells, and with silicon technology in particular. Here, we construct a simple and versatile techno-economic model that, for a given balance-of-systems scenario, calculates the tandem module efficiency and cost from assumed sub-cell module efficiencies and costs. To understand which input conditions are likely to be representative of the future photovoltaic market, we calculate learning rates for both module and area-related balance-of-system costs, and find that the slower learning rate of the latter means that high-efficiency tandems will become increasingly attractive. Further, in the residential market in 2020, the model indicates that top-cell modules could cost up to US$100 m–2—over twice that of the projected silicon module cost—and the associated tandem module would be cost-competitive if its energy yield, degradation rate, service life and financing terms are similar to those of silicon.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-018-0201-5

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