Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios

Seleshi G. Yalew (), Michelle T. H. van Vliet, David E. H. J. Gernaat, Fulco Ludwig, Ariel Miara, Chan Park, Edward Byers, Enrica De Cian, Franziska Piontek, Gokul Iyer, Ioanna Mouratiadou, James Glynn, Mohamad Hejazi, Olivier Dessens, Pedro Rochedo, Robert Pietzcker, Roberto Schaeffer, Shinichiro Fujimori, Shouro Dasgupta, Silvana Mima, Silvia R. Santos da Silva, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Robert Vautard and Detlef P. van Vuuren
Additional contact information
Seleshi G. Yalew: Utrecht University
Michelle T. H. van Vliet: Wageningen University
David E. H. J. Gernaat: Utrecht University
Fulco Ludwig: Wageningen University
Ariel Miara: Advanced Science Research Center, GC/CUNY
Chan Park: University of Seoul
Edward Byers: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis-IIASA
Enrica De Cian: Fondazione CMCC
Franziska Piontek: Leibniz Association
Gokul Iyer: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Ioanna Mouratiadou: Utrecht University
James Glynn: University College Cork
Mohamad Hejazi: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Olivier Dessens: University College London
Pedro Rochedo: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Robert Pietzcker: Leibniz Association
Roberto Schaeffer: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Shinichiro Fujimori: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Silvana Mima: Laboratoire d’économie appliquée de Grenoble
Silvia R. Santos da Silva: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Vaibhav Chaturvedi: Environment and Water
Robert Vautard: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l’Environnement-LSCE
Detlef P. van Vuuren: Utrecht University

Nature Energy, 2020, vol. 5, issue 10, 794-802

Abstract: Abstract Although our knowledge of climate change impacts on energy systems has increased substantially over the past few decades, there remains a lack of comprehensive overview of impacts across spatial scales. Here, we analyse results of 220 studies projecting climate impacts on energy systems globally and at the regional scale. Globally, a potential increase in cooling demand and decrease in heating demand can be anticipated, in contrast to slight decreases in hydropower and thermal energy capacity. Impacts at the regional scale are more mixed and relatively uncertain across regions, but strongest impacts are reported for South Asia and Latin America. Our assessment shows that climate impacts on energy systems at regional and global scales are uncertain due partly to the wide range of methods and non-harmonized datasets used. For a comprehensive assessment of climate impacts on energy, we propose a consistent multi-model assessment framework to support regional-to-global-scale energy planning.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-020-0664-z

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