Impacts of micromobility on car displacement with evidence from a natural experiment and geofencing policy

Omar Isaac Asensio (), Camila Z. Apablaza, M. Cade Lawson, Edward W. Chen and Savannah J. Horner
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Omar Isaac Asensio: Georgia Institute of Technology
Camila Z. Apablaza: Georgia Institute of Technology
M. Cade Lawson: Georgia Institute of Technology
Edward W. Chen: Georgia Institute of Technology
Savannah J. Horner: Georgia Institute of Technology

Nature Energy, 2022, vol. 7, issue 11, 1100-1108

Abstract: Abstract Micromobility, such as electric scooters and electric bikes—an estimated US$300 billion global market by 2030—will accelerate electrification efforts and fundamentally change urban mobility patterns. However, the impacts of micromobility adoption on traffic congestion and sustainability remain unclear. Here we leverage advances in mobile geofencing and high-resolution data to study the effects of a policy intervention, which unexpectedly banned the use of scooters during evening hours with remote shutdown, guaranteeing near perfect compliance. We test theories of habit discontinuity to provide statistical identification for whether micromobility users substitute scooters for cars. Evidence from a natural experiment in a major US city shows increases in travel time of 9–11% for daily commuting and 37% for large events. Given the growing popularity of restrictions on the use of micromobility devices globally, cities should expect to see trade-offs between micromobility restrictions designed to promote public safety and increased emissions associated with heightened congestion.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-022-01135-1

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