Stylized least-cost analysis of flexible nuclear power in deeply decarbonized electricity systems considering wind and solar resources worldwide

Lei Duan (), Robert Petroski, Lowell Wood and Ken Caldeira
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Lei Duan: Carnegie Institution for Science
Robert Petroski: TerraPower LLC
Lowell Wood: Gates Ventures LLC
Ken Caldeira: Carnegie Institution for Science

Nature Energy, 2022, vol. 7, issue 3, 260-269

Abstract: Abstract New designs of advanced nuclear power plants have been proposed that may allow nuclear power to be less expensive and more flexible than conventional nuclear. It is unclear how and whether such a system would complement variable renewables in decarbonized electricity systems. Here we modelled stylized electricity systems under a least-cost optimization framework taking into account technoeconomic factors only, considering electricity demand and renewable potential in 42 country-level regions. In our model, in moderate decarbonization scenarios, solar and wind can provide less costly electricity when competing against nuclear at near-current US Energy Information Administration (US$6,317 per kilowatt-electric (kWe)) and at US$4,000 kWe−1 cost levels. In contrast, in deeply decarbonized systems (for example, beyond ~80% emissions reduction) and in the absence of low-cost grid-flexibility mechanisms, nuclear can be competitive with solar and wind. High-quality wind resources can make it difficult for nuclear to compete. Thermal heat storage coupled to nuclear power can, in some cases, promote wind and solar.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-022-00979-x

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