Equitable low-carbon transition pathways for California’s oil extraction

Ranjit Deshmukh (), Paige Weber (), Olivier Deschenes, Danae Hernandez-Cortes, Tia Kordell, Ruiwen Lee, Christopher Malloy, Tracey Mangin, Measrainsey Meng, Sandy Sum, Vincent Thivierge, Anagha Uppal, David W. Lea and Kyle C. Meng ()
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Ranjit Deshmukh: University of California Santa Barbara
Paige Weber: University of California Santa Barbara
Danae Hernandez-Cortes: University of California Santa Barbara
Tia Kordell: University of California Santa Barbara
Ruiwen Lee: University of California Santa Barbara
Christopher Malloy: University of California Santa Barbara
Tracey Mangin: University of California Santa Barbara
Measrainsey Meng: University of California Santa Barbara
Sandy Sum: University of California Santa Barbara
Vincent Thivierge: University of California Santa Barbara
Anagha Uppal: University of California Santa Barbara
David W. Lea: University of California Santa Barbara
Kyle C. Meng: University of California Santa Barbara

Nature Energy, 2023, vol. 8, issue 6, 597-609

Abstract: Abstract Oil supply-side policies—setbacks, excise taxes and carbon taxes—are increasingly considered for decarbonizing the transportation sector. Understanding not only how such policies reduce oil extraction and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but also which communities receive the resulting health benefits and labour-market impacts is crucial for designing effective and equitable decarbonization pathways. Here we combine an empirical field-level oil-production model, an air pollution model and an employment model to characterize spatially explicit 2020–2045 decarbonization scenarios from various policies applied to California, a major oil producer with ambitious decarbonization goals. We find setbacks generate the largest avoided mortality benefits from reduced air pollution and the largest lost worker compensation, followed by excise and carbon taxes. Setbacks also yield the highest share of health benefits and the lowest share of lost worker compensation borne by disadvantaged communities. However, currently proposed setbacks may fail to meet California’s GHG targets, requiring either longer setbacks or additional supply-side policies.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-023-01259-y

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