Climate change impacts on planned supply–demand match in global wind and solar energy systems

Laibao Liu (), Gang He, Mengxi Wu (), Gang Liu, Haoran Zhang, Ying Chen, Jiashu Shen and Shuangcheng Li
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Laibao Liu: Peking University
Mengxi Wu: University of California Los Angeles
Gang Liu: Peking University
Haoran Zhang: University College London
Ying Chen: University of Birmingham
Jiashu Shen: Peking University
Shuangcheng Li: Peking University

Nature Energy, 2023, vol. 8, issue 8, 870-880

Abstract: Abstract Climate change modulates both energy demand and wind and solar energy supply but a globally synthetic analysis of supply–demand match (SDM) is lacking. Here, we use 12 state-of-the-art climate models to assess climate change impacts on SDM, quantified by the fraction of demand met by local wind or solar supply. For energy systems with varying dependence on wind or solar supply, up to 32% or 44% of non-Antarctic land areas, respectively, are projected to experience robust SDM reductions by the end of this century under an intermediate emission scenario. Smaller and more variable supply reduces SDM at northern middle-to-high latitudes, whereas reduced heating demand alleviates or reverses SDM reductions remarkably. By contrast, despite supply increases at low latitudes, raised cooling demand reduces SDM substantially. Changes in climate extremes and climate mean make size-comparable contributions. Our results provide early warnings for energy sectors in climate change adaptation.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-023-01304-w

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